PAHO Plans to Deal with Potential New Influenza Epidemic
Washington, DC, September 25, 2003 (PAHO)—Hemispheric health ministers today supported the creation of a plan of action for countries in the Americas to deal with the possible outbreak of a new influenza epidemic, whose spread cannot be entirely halted but merely limited.
The possibility of the outbreak of a new influenza virus strain is real and the nations of the Americas should be prepared to deal with it, said a report presented to hemispheric health ministers at the Pan American Health Organization’s 44th Directing Council meeting in Washington, D.C., this week.
The report said that the "sudden and marked change" in Influenza virus A should be considered one of "the greatest public health concerns" in the Americas.
Such a change can come about either through mutation or through the exchange of influenza virus genes or the transfer of whole virus among host species into what the report called "novel, genetically distinct subtypes, in a process known as antigenic shift."
The result: The abrupt appearance of a new virus strain to which populations may have no immunity and against which no existing vaccine may give protection.
"Recent episodes of animal strains causing disease in humans support experts’ views that a new pandemic is inevitable," the report said. "Epidemiological projects project that another pandemic is most likely to result in … 280,000 to 650,000 deaths in less than two years – in industrialized countries alone." A new plan of action could help limit the outbreak and the number of deaths.
It is considered impossible to anticipate when the next major shift – resulting in an influenza pandemic – might occur.
However, should another influenza epidemic virus appear again, a number of factors will increase the likelihood of spread and may put additional several constraints on the formulation and implementation of timely public health measures. Those factors include: Increased volume and speed of international travel, high population densities in many regions and increased urbanization.
Because of the possibility, PAHO recommends that planning for a new flu epidemic must be pursued to accomplish two objectives:
- Effective assessment of risk from new viruses.
- Effective management of risk when the new viruses present with new properties to spread widely and cause serious disease.
The plan is fashioned after the World Health Organization’s Global Agenda on Influenza Surveillance and Control, which addresses:
- Improvement in the quality and coverage of influenza surveillance.
- Development of national pandemic or epidemic plans.
- Studies of influenza epidemics to estimate the impact and economic burden pf a possible pandemic among high-risk group and the general population.
- Assessment of the requirements for vaccines and antivirals in the event of an epidemic.
- Promotion of technology transfer and partnerships for influenza vaccine production in the countries of the Americas.
- Improvement of influenza vaccine coverage among high-risk groups, such as seniors, during annual epidemics. Currently only eight hemispheric nations have yearly influenza vaccination programs for seniors – Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, the United States and Uruguay.
- Improvement of influenza outbreak control in closed settings.
In the past, influenza pandemics or epidemics have occurred, on average, three to four times every century when new viral strains emerged by antigenic shift and were transmitted from person to person.
During the 20th Century, epidemics of influenza – a respiratory disease common called "the flu" -- have affected different segments of the world’s population in different ways and impacts. Thus:
- During the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu epidemic more than 500,000 people in the United States and between 20 and 40 million died worldwide – more than killed in World War I -- of influenza-related complications.
- The 1957-1958 Asian Flu was associated with an estimated 100,000 deaths and affected between 10 percent and 35 percent of the world population.
- The 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu killed an estimated 700,000 people worldwide, including an estimated 34,000 deaths in the United States alone.
PAHO was established in 1902 and is the world’s oldest public health organization. PAHO works with all the countries of the Americas to improve the health and the quality of life of its people. It serves as the Regional Office for the Americas of the World Health Organization (WHO).
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