News and Public Information

PAHO To Assist Member Countries with Pandemic Planning

Washington, D.C., September 29, 2005 (PAHO)—Officials of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) today outlined their plan for a regional approach to influenza pandemic preparedness and response, during the 46th Directing Council meeting, which is taking place at PAHO headquarters this week.

The plan sets forth activities to promote pandemic preparedness among PAHO member countries, to monitor and prevent the spread of avian influenza in the region, and to provide guidance at the regional and country level on what to do should a human flu pandemic erupt.

PAHO's top influenza expert, Dr. Otavio Oliva, regional advisor on viral diseases, presented the Strategic and Operational Plan for Responding to Pandemic Influenza at a special briefing for the Directing Council. The PAHO plan lays out a multisectoral, phase-specific approach based on the World Health Organization's Global Influenza Preparedness Plan.

Oliva warned that the continuing spread of the H5N1 avian influenza virus has put the world closer to a new human flu pandemic than at any other time since 1968. The virus has been detected among birds in 10 countries in Asia, and human cases have occurred in four (Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam). More than half the 114 people who have contracted the disease, most of them directly from birds, have died.

Should the virus acquire the ability to spread easily from one person to another, it would likely provoke a human pandemic with catastrophic consequences, said Oliva. With a case fatality rate of 0.6 percent, it could cause between 2 million and 7.4 million deaths worldwide. However, he cautioned that the Spanish flu of 1918-19 had a case fatality rate of 2.2 percent and resulted in up to 50 million deaths, at a time when the world's population was much smaller and international travel much more limited.

"WHO [World Health Organization] modeling studies estimate that with an attack rate of 15-35 percent, a flu pandemic would result in 500 million to 1.2 billion people ill and 6-28 million hospitalizations," said Oliva.

"A flu pandemic would rapidly overburden our health care systems, cause billions of dollars in economic losses, and seriously disrupt the social order." While this is cause for alarm, "with this advance warning, we have a unique opportunity to prepare for a pandemic," he said. "Unfortunately, few of our countries have pandemic preparedness plans in place."

Oliva urged PAHO member countries to undertake pandemic planning and said the PAHO strategic plan provides a blueprint for the organization to support the countries in these efforts.

The PAHO plan proposes activities to be carried out both before and in the event that a pandemic occurs.

In the pre-pandemic phase, PAHO will work with its member countries to:

• Promote the development of national influenza pandemic preparedness plans,
• Strengthen surveillance through early warning systems,
• Ensure local availability of a pandemic vaccine and antiviral drugs,
• Plan for health-care services and infection control,
• Reduce opportunities for human infection,
• Develop pandemic communication plans and raise awareness of the pandemic threat,
• Estimate the potential impact of an influenza pandemic and assess information gaps, and
• Build partnerships and strategic alliances among authorities in health, agriculture, emergency response and other sectors, as well as with civil society and the private sector, to support an effective response to pandemic influenza.

Should a pandemic virus emerge, PAHO will work at the regional and country levels to contain or delay the early spread of the virus. In the event of a full-scale pandemic, PAHO efforts will focus on reducing morbidity, mortality, and social disruption through coordinated action with its member countries and WHO.

Assistant Director Carissa Etienne said that, given the potential impact of a flu pandemic and the uncertainty about its timing, "we must act today as if the pandemic could start tomorrow." She noted that many member countries have requested assistance in this area, and she called on all PAHO member countries to undertake pandemic planning and to share their plans with one another to strengthen these efforts.

On Tuesday, WHO Director-General LEE Jong-wook warned the PAHO Directing Council that an influenza pandemic was a "storm brewing that will test us all."

"Every country must have a national pandemic control plan," Lee said. "Every country must also have a communications strategy. It should be ready and able to inform the public about the pandemic, what is happening and what to do."

The Ministers of Health of all the countries of the Americas hold their annual meeting at PAHO's headquarters to analyze the health situation in the region and adopt key resolutions on important public health problems.

PAHO was established in 1902 and is the world's oldest public health organization. PAHO works with all the countries of the Americas to improve the health and the quality of life of people of the Americas. It serves as the Regional Office for the Americas of the World Health Organization (WHO).

PAHO Member States today include all 35 countries in the Americas. France, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland are Participating States. Portugal and Spain are Observer States, and Puerto Rico is an Associate Member.