Planning for a Flu Pandemic

Health leaders at the 44th PAHO Directing Council meeting urged the countries of the Americas to prepare for the possibility of a new, pandemic-creating strain of influenza.

A report presented at the meeting said the "sudden and marked change" in Influenza virus A should be considered one of "the greatest public health concerns" in the Americas. The abrupt appearance of a new virus strain would be dangerous because populations would lack immunity to it and existing vaccines would likely offer no protection.

"Recent episodes of animal strains causing disease in humans support experts' views that a new pandemic is inevitable," the report said. "Epidemiological projects project that another pandemic is most likely to result in...280,000 to 650,000 deaths in less than two years—in industrialized countries alone." The report pointed out that a number of factors increase the likelihood of rapid spread of such a new strain, including increased international travel and high population densities in many regions.

PAHO recommends that planning for a new flu epidemic focus on:

• Improvement in the quality and coverage of influenza surveillance.
• Development of national pandemic or epidemic plans.
• Studies of influenza epidemics to estimate the impact and economic burden of a possible pandemic.
• Assessment of the requirements for vaccines and antiviral drugs in the event of such an epidemic.
• Promotion of technology transfer and partnerships for influenza vaccine production in the countries of the Americas.
• Improvement of influenza vaccine coverage among high-risk groups, such as seniors, during annual epidemics.
• Improvement of influenza outbreak control in closed settings.