Early Warning for Climate-Related Diseases

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) in Palisades, New York, has been named a Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) Collaborating Center for Early Warning Systems for Malaria and other Climate-Sensitive Diseases (visit IRI.columbia.edu).

Part of Columbia University's Earth Institute, IRI uses developments in climate science to help susceptible populations prepare for and mitigate the effects of drastic changes in patterns of temperature and precipitation. As a PAHO/WHO Collaborating Center, IRI will develop climate information systems that can forecast outbreaks of climate-related diseases including malaria, dengue and cholera.

Changes in climate can have a major impact on human health by affecting the environmental conditions in which disease vectors, such as mosquitoes, live and reproduce. Unusually warm or wet weather, for example, can expand breeding sites or create more hospitable habitats, leading to an increase in the vectors' range and numbers.

Examples of such events include a 1994 drought in Puerto Rico that led to an increase in dengue fever, due to household storage of domestic water. Wetter-thannormal spring seasons have preceded dengue fever upsurges in Costa Rica and Fortaleza, Brazil. Studies in Mexico have shown significant correlations of dengue fever with temperature and rain.

These patterns, and the possibility of predicting them in advance, have aroused growing interest among both climatologists and public health experts. Recently the two communities have embarked on several collaborative ventures. As part of an effort to develop a Malaria Early Warning System, WHO last year partnered with the Southern Africa Development Community Drought Monitoring Center to hold the first Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, in September. Participants reviewed seasonal climate forecasts and the implications for the next malaria season.

The new PAHO/WHO center plans to launch two new projects this year focusing on malaria and dengue in Colombia and cholera in Asia and Africa.

In addition to developing early warning systems, the center will work with local agencies and other groups in epidemic-prone regions to help implement effective prevention and control measures.

IRI has previously worked with the Argentine Association of Regional Consortiums for Agricultural Experimentation, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos and the Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos in Brazil, and the Instituto del Mar in Peru.