To analyze the dynamics of the spatial and temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil from 2007 to 2020.
This ecological study focused on the spatial pattern of visceral leishmaniasis cases in Brazil from 2007 to 2020 using data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN). The variables analyzed were the incidence rate of visceral leishmaniasis and the visceral leishmaniasis composite indicator (VLCI), from which triennial thematic maps were constructed. The global Moran index was calculated to assess the existence of spatial autocorrelation, and the local Moran index was used to identify areas with higher and lower risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.
During the study period, there were 48 705 cases of visceral leishmaniasis, with an incidence rate of 25.53 cases per 100 000 population. There was spatial autocorrelation in all triennial blocks, with municipalities in the North and Northeast regions having an incidence equal to or greater than 50 cases per 100 000 population. Regarding the VLCI there was an increase in the number of municipalities classified as low risk for transmission, and a growing presence of state capitals with a classification of very high risk.
The incidence of visceral leishmaniasis varied over the trienniums. The border region between the states of Tocantins, Maranhão, and Pará, along with the state of Ceará, stood out in the spatial distribution of the disease incidence and risk stratification by VLCI. These areas should be a priority for surveillance and control efforts for the disease.