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The mortality data presented here were estimated by Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) using standard methods to overcome data quality issues and maximize cross-country comparability. They are derived from national official vital statistics, reported by Member States to PAHO, but not necessarily the official statistics of Member States.

The regional mortality database prepared, organized and integrated by PAHO based on official national vital statistics system were used as data source. [1] 

PAHO methods for correcting incompleteness and inadequacies in recorded deaths from the national vital statistics systems were used [2] as follow. Deaths with unknown sex were redistributed pro-rata within known sex by stratum (country, year, age, and underlying cause of death), and deaths with unknown age were redistributed proportionally within known ages by strata. 

The coverage of the vital statistics systems was estimated by dividing the observed general mortality rate by strata of country, year, sex and age-group, by the expected death rate in the same stratum based on life table estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013. [3] Tabulated deaths by stratum were corrected by dividing the number of registered deaths by the under-registration estimates. This correction was applied under the assumption that missing deaths from vital statistics across strata follow the same distribution of recorded deaths. 

Deaths with underlying causes coded to symptoms, signs and ill?defined conditions were redistributed proportionally to all non?injury causes of death by stratum (country, year, sex and age group) under the assumption that these deaths follow the same distribution of recorded deaths from well-defined non-injury causes, and any death coded as ill-defined condition were not actually due to an injury-related cause of death.

All mortality measures were calculated using population estimates from World Population Prospects, 2015 Edition, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations [4]; and for countries and territories with less than 250 000 population, International Population Database from United States Census Bureau, 2015. Age-standardized mortality rates were obtained by the direct method of adjustment using the 2000-2025 WHO world standard population. [5]

Unconditional probability of dying at exact ages of 30 to 70 years from any of the four major Noncommunicable diseases

The probability of dying between ages 30 and 70 years from the four main NCDs was estimated using age-specific death rates (in 5-year age groups, e.g. 30-34, 35-39, ... 65-69, for those between 30 and 70) of the combined four main NCD categories, for each country. Using the life table method, the risk of death between the exact ages of 30 and 70, from any of the four causes and in the absence of other causes of death, was calculated using the equation below. ?The ICD codes used are: Cardiovascular disease: I00-I99, ?Cancer: C00-C97, ?Diabetes: E10-E14, ?and Chronic respiratory disease: J30-J98.????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Five-year death rates were then translated into the probability of death for each NCD using the following formula:

Where 5Mx is the age-specific mortality rate for each five-year age group, country and year.

The unconditional probability of death, for the 30-70 age range, was finally calculated using the following formula: 

For more information see the technical definition of probability of dying from NCDs

Available data

Table 1 shows the country-year of mortality data available and used as data source in the estimation of NCD mortality metrics as of August 2016.

  

Limitations

Mortality estimation methods were applied only to available country-year data. This means that incomplete time series of mortality measures have been produced, and some results at subregional and regional levels should be analyzed with caution.

Mortality estimates for countries and territories with small population, such as some Caribbean islands, are unstable due to small numerators and denominators. Results in this cases should be analyzed with caution.  

References

  1. PAHO (2016). Regional mortality database. Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Available online https://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9155&Itemid=40096&lang=en&limitstart=1  (accessed on 11 March 2016)
  2. Silvi J. On the estimation of mortality rates for countries of the Americas. Epidemiological Bulletin/ Pan American Health Organization. December 2003. 24 (4):1-5. Accessed March 1, 2015. Available online https://www.paho.org/english/dd/ais/EB_v24n4.pdf
  3. IHME (2014). Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. GBD 2013 Life Table 1990-2013. Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) Age-Sex Specific All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality 1990-2013. Seattle, United States: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2014. GBD 2013 Download http://ghdx.healthdata.org/global-burden-disease-study-2013-gbd-2013-data-downloads  (accessed 10 April 2016)
  4. UN DESA (2015). World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations. Available online at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/ (accessed on 11 March 2016).
  5. Omar B Ahmad, Cynthia Boschi-Pinto, Alan D Lopez, Christopher JL Murray, Rafael Lozano, Mie Inoue. (2001) Age standardization of rates: a new WHO standard. World Health Organization, 2001.  Available online https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper31.pdf (accessed 14 April 2016)