Association between population hypertension control and ischemic heart disease and stroke mortality in 36 countries of the Americas, 1990-2019: an ecological study

ABSTRACT

Objective. To quantify the association between the prevalence of population hypertension control and ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mortality in 36 countries of the Americas from 1990 to 2019. Methods. This ecologic study uses the prevalence of hypertension, awareness, treatment, and control from the NCD-RisC and IHD and stroke mortality from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Regression analysis was used to assess time trends and the association between population hypertension control and mortality. Results. Between 1990 and 2019, age-standardized death rates due to IHD and stroke declined annually by 2.2% (95% confidence intervals: –2.4 to –2.1) and 1.8% (–1.9 to –1.6), respectively. The annual reduction rate in IHD and stroke mortality deaccelerated to –1% (–1.2 to –0.8) during 2000-2019. From 1990 to 2019, the prevalence of hypertension controlled to a systolic/diastolic blood pressure ≤140/90 mmHg increased by 3.2% (3.1 to 3.2) annually. Population hypertension control showed an inverse association with IHD and stroke mortality, respectively, regionwide and in all but 3 out of 36 countries. Regionwide, for every 1% increase in population hypertension control, our data predicted a reduction of 2.9% (–2.94 to –2.85) in IHD deaths per 100 000 population, equivalent to an averted 25 639 deaths (2.5 deaths per 100 000 population) and 2.37% (–2.41 to –2.33) in stroke deaths per 100 000 population, equivalent to an averted 9 650 deaths (1 death per 100 000 population). Conclusion. There is a strong ecological negative association between IHD and stroke mortality and population hypertension control. Countries with the best performance in hypertension control showed better progress in reducing CVD mortality. Prediction models have implications for hypertension management in most populations in the Region of the Americas and other parts of the world.