Ethical considerations in developing a public health response to pandemic influenza

Although we cannot predict when the next influenza pandemic will occur, since the 16th century, the world has experienced an average of three pandemics per century, occurring at intervals of 10 to 50 years. Morbidity and mortality have varied across pandemics, making accurate predictions of the impact of the next pandemic impossible. However, a new influenza pandemic may result in a significant burden on human health and lead to major social and economic disruption. In addition, the implementation of public health measures aimed at limiting social interaction (such as restrictions on gatherings and population movements) are likely to have a major impact on trade and tourism. In view of these possible consequences, countries and the international community must prepare to cope with a pandemic and mitigate its impact.