Public Health Situation Analysis: El Niño in the Americas, 2026-2027

 As of June 2026, oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate a transition toward El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with forecasts suggesting a high probability of development during 2026 and persistence into early 2027. 

Seasonal outlooks indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the Americas, accompanied by regionally variable rainfall anomalies, including heightened risks of drought in parts of Central America, the Caribbean, and northern South America, and increased rainfall in portions of the Pacific coast of South America and the Southern Cone. Experience from previous El Niño events, including the 2023–2024 event, demonstrates the potential for significant impacts on food security, water availability, livelihoods, public health, and critical infrastructure. 

El Niño-related climatic anomalies may contribute to increased risks of vector-borne, water-borne, and food-borne diseases, heat-related illness, wildfire-associated respiratory impacts, food insecurity, displacement, and disruptions to health services, particularly among populations already affected by poverty, migration, displacement, or limited access to essential services.