In the map and horizontal bar chart, the data is presented in five discrete classes created using the quantile classification method. Each class contains 20% of countries, which is easy to interpret. The quintile classes are labeled sequentially from Quintile 1 as the first or lower quintile including the lowest fifth (1% to 20%) of the data to Quintile 5, the fifth or upper quintile representing the class with the highest fifth (81% to 100%) of the data.
Indicator name: Probability of dying between exact ages 30 and 70 from any of the four major noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes mellitus, or chronic respiratory diseases), expressed in percentage.
Short name: Risk of premature death from target NCDs.
Data type: Percent.
Rationale: The disease burden from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) among adults is rapidly increasing worldwide due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. Measuring the risk of dying from target NCDs is important to assess the extent of the burden from mortality due to NCDs in a population. This indicator has been selected to measure NCD mortality for the "25 by 25" NCD mortality target.
Definition: Probability (expressed in percentage) that a 30-year-old-individual has of dying before reaching its 70th birthday from any major noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes mellitus, or chronic respiratory diseases), assuming that individual would experience current mortality rates at every age and she/he would not die from any other cause of death (e.g., injuries or HIV/AIDS).
Method of estimation: Probability of death between exact age 30 and 70 years was calculated using cause-specific mortality rates in each five-year age group and standard life table methods. The estimates are derived from the WHO Global Health Estimates 2019 (GHE). These estimates represent the best estimates of WHO, computed using standard cause categories, definitions, and methods to ensure cross-country comparability, and may not be the same as official national estimates. Due to changes in input data and methods, estimates from GHE 2019 derogate previously published WHO estimates.
Detailed information for the unconditional probability of dying can be found in the NCD Global Monitoring Framework: Indicator Definition and Specifications [pdf file, 645Kb].
Data sources and methods for estimating deaths and mortality are described in the following documents:
Preferred data sources: Civil registration and vital statistics with complete coverage and medical certification of cause of death.
Other possible data sources: Household surveys, sample or sentinel registration systems.
This indicator should be interpreted as the chance that a 30-year-old individual living in a specific country (or place) in a specific year (or defined period of time) has of dying from any of the four major NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, or chronic respiratory disease) before reaching the age of 70 years (or his/her 70th birthday).